How Do You Perceive Value?

I've often been told no matter how long the meetings you attend are you will likely take 2-3 things home from them.  When I attended a training a couple weeks ago one story was something I took home and dissected.  The presenter talked about a story of buying gloves at a store when they were on sale for 50% off.  When he took them to the register the woman behind it said he should have been there last week when they were buy one get one free, it was a "better deal".  While most logical people would understand that if you buy one and get the other free essentially buying two at 50% off is exactly the same "deal", this cashier didn't see it that way.

The question here is really how do you or your customers perceive value.  While something may be a deal to one the other may not see it that way.  Agriculture is full of these "deals" and often they are the same or if you run the numbers maybe one that doesn't appear to be a deal is in fact a better deal.  We are often distracted by price and don't look at the "value" in products we are buying.  I was routinely frustrated growing up with a father who valued price over quality.  In one instance we were looking at brake pads for my car when I was a teenager and I remember him buying the cheapest ones we could find only to have to replace them a year later, swearing as we did it a second time.  I think the cheap organic ones were something like $25 while the better longer lasting ceramic pads were $50.  Just think about how much time it took to replace them along with the added trip to the store and the swearing that ensued.  In reality, we likely didn't break even on the fact we replaced the pads twice in one year with all the added work.  These stories remind me why I often take out a calculator (open the app on my phone), or pull out a pen and paper and do the math on the alternatives.  At the time it was frustrating but as I get older these "lessons" taught me to look at all the facts and think with a business mindset about decisions.

In Ag, we see these situations present themselves more often than not.  In a previous life I sold potash that had a 62% analysis at a $10 higher price/ton.  When you actually did the math at current prices it made financial sense that even at a higher price we were in fact cheaper per unit of K.  Believe it or not that was a tough sell a lot of times.  Farmers perceived that it was the same product and it was hard to see past a difference in price.  We did get an additional margin on selling the higher analysis, but was that worth losing sales over perceived value?

I've also been part of the seed financing debate and a lot of that was perceived value as well.  Many companies offer financing at different interest rates, with some having 0% financing and charging more for the seed up front, others advertising 0% financing but in the fine print it's 0% over prime, and others just regular financing at a certain interest rate based on the prime interest rate.  Which one would draw most peoples attention?  A lot of farms gravitated towards anyone offering 0% financing with the perception they got a deal when they in fact often paid 3-5% more for seed to cover the financing. 

So what is the moral of all this?  When you are making purchase or business decisions weigh out the actual cost of products over what the perceived costs are.  Most people or companies are not trying to pull wool over your eyes with deals, they are merely trying to create programs that are appealing to a broad group.  When asked they should explain all the programs or "deals" to you in detail, if they don't want to that's another blog post... 

With lower commodity prices and potentially higher input costs it's important to weigh your options and think long term not just about saving a dollar today.  Spending time analyzing farm expenses and purchases is something you should regularly be doing.  It makes good fiscal sense and will help you in the long term to continue to be a viable business.

Soybean Aphid Scouting R5 and Beyond

With a flourish of calls today it's that time of year again, when we are nearing the end of the growing season and soybeans are almost past soybean aphid threshold timing.  When soybeans reach the R5 growth stage we typically will see a late season flush of aphids and with it a rush of panic from growers worried they need to spray.  The interesting thing for me is not the farmer calls I get it's often the other agronomists trying to assuage their growers fears calling me for advice.  So here it is, what I look for scouting aphids from R5 on.

The common threshold for spraying soybeans for aphids is a population of 250 aphids/plant at R3-R4 with that changing to 250 aphids/plant and growing during R5 or podfill. R5 is when you have a seed 1/8" long at one of the top four nodes on the soybean plant.  A node is classified by having a fully developed leaf which really means any node on the main stem with a fully developed leaf (the leaflets are not touching and fully out).  Most soybeans are fully into this stage right now with some reaching R5.5 which is when we have a seed filling half the cavity in the pod on those top four nodes.  At R5.5 our threshold for soybean aphids is really up in the air, but the common theme continues 250 aphids/plant with population increasing.  The reason for paying attention to R5.5 is that R5 only really lasts about two weeks and thresholds are developed to allow for finding populations and taking 7 days to get there to spray hence being a "spray threshold".  So, in theory if we are half way through the stage that lasts two weeks by the time we would spray at the economic threshold of 1,000 aphids/plant (the actual threshold before we see economic loss) by the time we would spray we may be beyond treatment timing.

White Dwarf Aphids

For many who have not seen economic thresholds of soybean aphids in the past 10 years (the last time I have on a large scale) the field would have to be coated in aphids and honeydew they secrete.  These fields you walk out of with stiff pants, stained green and sticky.  In all likelihood we will not see this happen in 2018 outside of fields that have hot spots.  Another important note of why we have not seen these populations in the past 10 years is the abundance of beneficial insects like lady beetles/larvae, minute pirate bugs, lacewings, and many others.  I did some tillage a week ago on prevent plant ground with a grill filled with minute pirate bugs.  Lady beetles/larvae will often eat upwards of 100 aphids per day and continue feeding until soybean plant senescence at R7-8 or when they decide your house is more hospitable than a field.

Several White Dwarf Aphids among two regular soybean aphids

Walking a lot of fields in over seven counties in Wisconsin the past eleven years I have seen many things and had the chance to understand what will happen if we don't spray or we do spray at this late of a stage.  The most intersting thing to be a part of is trying to understand what white dwarf soybean aphids mean and do as we get later in the season.  The white dwarf stage of aphids is still an often debated stage with questions around what do they mean to the population and what their presence means when it comes to soybean feeding.  What we know is that white dwarf soybean aphids live half as long as regular aphids, reproduce less, and cause significantly less damage.  The unknowns are really what their presence means to soybean aphid populations.  It's thought that their appearance means the aphid population is noticing a reduction in the sugars in the plants.  In my experience once we see them the population is in a drastic decline and should be reevaluated in 3-5 days.  Often after this period of time we see the population disappear or go down significantly.

So, scouting during R5 is usually an easy decision for me in many fields.  If you see soybean aphids at early R5 colonizing the stems on some plants and conditions are favorable for increase by all means get the sprayer out and spray them ASAP.  Pay attention to pre harvest intervals on the insecticide of your choosing as that will be happening in 45 days or so.  If aphids are at 250 aphids/plant come back in 3-5 days to check to see if they are rising and make the spray determination that day.  If you are near or past R5.5 and notice the presence of white dwarf stage aphids check again in a few days but it's very likely you will be past spraying.  The only caveat here is if you are under drought stress and seeing soybeans flipping leaves in a majority of the field and are no where near R7, get the sprayer out and spray if you feel that there's a chance of a decent crop in that field and are at or near 250 aphids/plant.

How Important Is Updating Technology?

One of the biggest struggles I run into is advice on updating technology, or really why should you update technology if the current technology is doing what you want.  I'll be honest, the cost is usually not cheap by any means to update.  Current yield monitors and GPS units can run upwards of $10k and get you very similar data.  I often get comments on how new everything I use is, or how "fancy" it is but I think its essential to be running the latest technology in the job I do and on the farm.

I've spent hours trying to get old monitors or technology to do things it was never designed to do in the first place.  Installing aftermarket GPS's, making one brand talk to another, and even using a computer to process 4K video even though it wasn't meant to ever handle it.  In most cases, an investment of $1-2k would have been easier, but the cheaper option involved several hours of frustrating work.  A lot of this work, if it was charged on a per hour basis, would have equaled the cost of the plug and play equipment option and would have had less service calls and issues.

If you just want data for basic analysis or basic functionality by all means go with the cheapest option, but keep in mind what you may be doing 3-5 years down the road.  A lot of initial equipment doesn't work with the more advanced programs or hardware, so sometimes saving money up front will require you to purchase better equipment down the road capable of handling more advanced tasks and programs.  If make an entry level purchase, look at what the capabilities are if you ever plan to got with more advanced hardware or programs.

For those who are into using data and want better functionality, never go cheap.  The problem with most technology is that by the time you get the most advanced thing on the market in less than a year there is usually something better, newer, greater, etc.  While often costly at first, there are many programs for trading in for the newest equipment.  In many years of working with technology I've learned if you want the best, you're going to pay for it.  The key take away however, is that you get the best data, functionality, and it's often more user friendly.  If you can make the data pay the investment is almost always worth it.  I hate to use the "garbage in, garbage out" analogy, but it definitely applies to data.

My biggest push back is often the price of updating every year or so, but when it comes to using new tech I'm usually the first call to use my own hardware since it is the newest and has features/can do things that what is in our inventory can't do.  It's frustrating since those I try to convince to upgrade and often get shot down, are often the one's who want what I can do with the hardware I purchased personally to do what I needed that our old hardware would not do.  If you want to be the leader in technology, you're going to pay for it and realize that it's not a one time investment.  It takes yearly updating and spending time seeing what is on the market that may be better than what you are currently doing.  The best thing I have found is to follow some market leaders and see what they are testing and purchase what they end up buying.  It's also helpful to find the companies that are constantly growing and coming out with new products.  It's much easier to find a handful of companies who are at the top of hardware and software and getting their new products than buying from several and changing back and forth.

In summary, if you want good data or media bite the bullet and pay the price.  In the end it will be easier and you will be the tech leader who produces content/data that others drool over.  If you do it correctly, you'll get back what you invest and then some.

One Year, One Focus

I've attended a few meetings on the subject of "there's 1,000 variables that affect a crop" and it can be a little overwhelming if you think about what those 1,000 things are.  Instead I like to use a one year, once focus approach for those I work with. There are many reasons I do this; fixing every issue in one year is not cost effective, when you have several things to do it's hard to focus on many things, and making whole hog changes can be dangerous if not done in steps.

I recently attended a Winfield event where Director of Insights and Partnerships, Jim Hedges, said that "the things I didn't do were the things (on my farm) that cost me the most."  That quote is exactly the thing we need to focus on.  Often it's the little things like not applying an insecticide or changing a tillage practice we noticed was hurting us that will haunt us again in the future.  His talk was around using technology insights to have better in season decision making so you can take action earlier and with better chances of returns.  While the value of in season decisions can pay big returns it's often the little things we overlook.

Two years ago I noticed that we had a reduced plant stand compared to others with similar programs and we spent the entire summer working on why that was.  The root of the cause was somewhere between soil conditions at planting and the amount of in-furrow starter we were using (too much).
  We lowered our starter rate, and used a biological fungicide along with our planned in-furrow insecticide with the singular goal of increasing plant stand and uniformity in 2016.  That was it, just one goal for the year and it paid big dividends with a two-thousand plant increase that led to a 14 bushel farm average increase over 2015 all the while reducing our cost per bushel. 

Singular focuses have paid big dividends in other operations as well.  Another farm I work with was having a similar issue with plant stand a few years ago, but it was from residue in the seed trench and issues with closing.  We changed closing wheels to a slightly more aggressive closer one year, and saw a significant improvement but not what we wanted.  So, the following year we also added trash wheels ahead of the row units behind their zone-till coulters on their planter and finally had a plant stand we were happy with.

It is likely that these are not issues on every operation, but there are many things we can be doing different every year.  The key is to find someone willing to work with you to find these little things that you can improve on your operation and making a yearly focus on them to improve crop performance and profitability.  While we often focus on agronomy subjects things we can improve are not just limited to agronomy since marketing is often another aspect that we need to improve.

The options here are really limitless (back to the 1,000 variables thing), but they are fixable.  For me, I come up with one slogan for the year and write it down on my white board in my office at the top.  This year's slogan is what is important for me when we work with our customers and is my singular focus for 2018 "grasp input costs so we can react to markets, and execute our plan".  If you find a singular focus for your operation in 2018, own it and make it all you are about for this year.

What will go on YOUR white board?

Crop Management in Tough Times

As we enter the '16 crop season there seems to be more questions and uncertainty in the country than answers and guidance.  Over the past couple seasons I have been working with several growers on preparing for a downturn in crop prices and managing through these times.  Below are several of the strategies we have been working on that have worked so far.

Examine Your Low Producing Acres

We do an excellent job managing our good acres, but seem to put low producing acres on the back burner.  Our good producing acres make us money, but your lowest production ground loses you money.  While a field can still get you a good overall yield, putting the same fertilizer and inputs into low yielding areas as your top areas costs you money.  The key for us has been using the tools we have to manage these areas so we don't put money where it's not needed.  3-5 years of good yield data can help you to determine these areas and apply fertilizer accordingly.  VRT fertilizer based on crop removal and variable rate nitrogen can reduce the amount of  inputs you put on areas that will just not get you the return on investment you need.  The biggest thing for us the past few years has been finding these areas and determining what's the reason for their lower production.  Sometimes its something simple like compaction, or fertility and in some cases they are just low producing soil that will never come up to meet the average for the field.  Fixing problem spots is probably the most rewarding feeling I've had, and everyone knows what its like to have a good average going then watching it go down when you take off these spots in every field.

Spread Your Risk With Land Leases

Over 80% of agricultural land is rented, and most use the same contract to lock these acres up for a few years.  If you ever talk to someone who does snowplowing in winter they typically spread their risk by three types of contracts; 1/3 are by the inch, 1/3 are by the snowfall, and 1/3 are by the season.  Whether they have a low snowfall season, a season with several small snowfalls, or a few big snowfalls they are covered.  A typical lease agreement in agriculture is so much for every acre a year over a certain amount of years.  Try doing three different kinds of leases; a certain amount per year, yield based, and market based.   Flex rent contracts are a way to hedge your risk on a certain amount of your land.  Determining the land owners who will fit each type of contract is key.  Just like marketing, it's all about spreading your risk.

Take the Emotion out of Marketing

If you trade stocks or have investments we all know it's about the long haul.  I'll be honest, I've hit a few big trades but I've also taken a few bad investments(including one stock that I still own that's lost over 50% of it's value).  The biggest thing I have learned working with grain merchandisers and investment "experts" is that you have to take the emotion out of any market.  Markets don't have to do anything, and often will do what we don't expect.  I work with growers on establishing their breakeven per acre and per bushel to determine when we should be marketing grain.  Some years we don't get the highest price, but we try to focus on average prices above our costs IE. ROI.  The biggest breakthrough we had was a few years ago when we started marketing grain every time we got any kind of selling signal.  Even if you think the market may go up you should sell some amount of grain if you are thinking about it, we've hit more of the up days in a rally this way.  If you work with a merchandiser capable of doing puts and calls take advantage of them, again hedge your risk.  Leave the coffee shop talk to someone else, worry about making the most per acre over the long run not who sold one contract for the most.

Evaluate Equipment Costs

A couple years ago I had a grower ask me about whether he should by a draper head or not.  When we looked at the return per acre it was impressive, but when we figured out the years and acres it would take to pay for his investment he determined it wasn't worth it at the time.  I think we should all be doing this on every piece of equipment you own.  Having fresh paint around is always nice, but does it make you money?  Figure out your annual repair costs, and potential down time with the equipment you have.  If it doesn't gain you enough to get a return on your investment in a few years then it might not be worth making a trade.  That goes both ways as well, if a piece of equipment you have doesn't pay for itself already maybe it's something to consider trying to use one piece of equipment to do what you did with two.  A couple of the growers I work with had a tractor that did only one job every year that could be taken over by another tractor that wasn't running another job that time of year.

Use a Farm Advisor, not a Salesman

Saving $10/ton on fertilizer on something you use 200#/acre saves you about $1/ac.  While seed/chemicals/fertilizer is a large amount of your expenses they make up only about 40% of your overall input costs.  Prices and programs can vary by supplier, but usually markets determine the costs your input supplier pay and they almost all buy for the same price.  Lower prices typically follow lower service providers, so for a lower price you get little or no service.  The key to all of this is working with someone who understands your goals and is willing to incorporate that into what they recommend and do for you.  People who try to sell you products only to fix problems are just at your farm gate trying to sell you products, people who listen to your concerns and pay attention to your equipment, problems, and goals are there to work with you to make you better.  I always tell my growers if they don't make money they won't buy anything from me and I'll be unemployed.  If we are all in it for the long haul and are invested in each other, we should both be making money.

That's it, that's what I help my growers focus on in good years and help them prepare for the bad years.  It's all about working with the right people, spreading your risk, making business decisions without emotion, and looking at the decisions you make with your bottom line in mind.  It's not about who has the best equipment, or sold for the highest price; it's about preparing your operation to continue for the next generation and going to bed with no worries or regrets. 

Is There a "Perfect" Row Unit?

So, is there a perfect row unit for every condition and situation?  In my experience I have yet to find one.  Selecting a row unit and attachments that can go from no-till in heavy clay to conventionally worked ground in near perfect soil is hard as each one has their fit, but none seem to be truly universal.  What works in one condition more than likely will not work in another.

After a discussion with a few guys on newagtalk.com including Matt Hagny from Exapta Solutions, www.exapta.com I thought I should lay out my thoughts on row units from experience and studying research trials.


Row Cleaners

Floating Martin-Till Row Cleaners

The leading edge of any row unit should have them, even in worked ground.  Cleaning residue from the seed trench and ahead of the disk openers is a must.  Running row cleaners just at soil level so they move about 50% of the time is where you should set them.  Residue that gets into the disk openers can cause several issues especially hair pinning residue in the seed trench preventing even emergence and closing.  In the fixed vs. floating debate, floating is better than fixed row cleaners especially in variable field conditions.  I've seen row cleaners set up for no-till in a field that has both worked and no-till that plowed in the worked ground.  Plowing with row cleaners to get to moisture or for other reasons will put seed in cold soil and create a trench to capture and channel moisture.




Seed Firmers
Seed firmers are designed to run behind the seed tube and push seed to the bottom of the trench.  In worked ground, or heavy soils this attachment is invaluable.  Some will argue that mud will ball up on them and drag seed, but if you are planting in conditions that mud would collect on firmers you shouldn't be planting.  Another instance you should consider firmers is where you are using offset disk openers and/or RID gauge wheels which you will see on Case IH planters.


To Coulter or Not to Coulter
A lot of "no-till" planters have just a single coulter ahead of the disk openers, while others like the picture above will have them just behind row cleaners.  The idea behind coulters is to lightly work the soil ahead of the disk openers and in heavy soil no-till situations this has a place.  Running just a coulter will also hairpin residue in the seed trench in both worked and no-till situations.  Ideally, coulters are only needed in no-till planting into heavy soils.  Remember to run them just above the seed trench, this can be set by putting the row unit on a level surface and adjusting them accordingly.


Closing Wheels

Schlagel Posi Close Wheels

There are many versions of closing wheels on the market now and many of them do the same job.  The standard closing wheel configuration is two rubber wheels and in worked soils this is still the best setup to run.  In heavy soils and no-till I have seen good performance from the Schlagel Posi Close wheels that give some down pressure while not creating a zone that can crack if conditions get wet then dry.  Another setup that works in these conditions with ability to move to good worked ground is one spiked closing wheel like a Yetter 13" spike along with a rubber wheel.  One thing to caution running aggressive spiked closing wheels is to be careful with popping seed out of the trench.  This can be alleviated by running a seed firmer.

*A side note on treader wheel closing systems like Case IH and cotton closing systems from John Deere
In near perfect conditions these systems can do a decent job, but in heavier soils seed trench closing and emergence can be hampered by using these systems.

Gauge Wheels
On the market right now we basically have two types of gauge wheels, traditional and Reduced Interior Diameter (RID).  RID wheels have a narrow footprint with an indentation near the disk openers that is supposed to create a lifting effect next to the seed trench to minimize gauge wheel compaction.  This lifting effect also can create air pockets in the trench leading to other wheels.  Ideally running traditional gauge wheels you would adjust your down pressure to minimize sidewall compaction in the trench.


Disk Openers
There are also two configurations for disk openers, offset and side by side.  The offset creates a shallower angle in the seed furrow leaving seed sometimes hanging up shallower than intended.  Traditional disk opener setups with a seed firmer appear to be the winners here as well.

To me the perfect row unit in perfect soil conditions would have floating trash wheels with a seed firmer, past that any other configuration of the above parts would work.  In tough conditions I would be looking at regular gauge wheels and disk openers along with a spiked/rubber wheel closing system or Schlagel Posi Close with or without a coulter. 

Down Pressure

Truck tracks picked up by Delta Force via Dustin Spears @dspears2

The one thing that is interesting to watch is the development in down pressure with hydraulic systems getting more acres through them.  Setting a planter's down pressure one time per field is not ideal when you are constantly changing conditions across a field along with losing weight from using seed and fertilizer.  The newer air and hydraulic systems adjust on the go to give you enough down force or in some cases lift to keep the proper ground contact and consistent seed placement.  Here is an interesting twitter post from Dustin Spears showing how Delta Force from Precision Planting picked up and adjusted for pickup truck tire tracks on the fly.  https://twitter.com/dspears2/status/457623435783319552 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j578ZuiTPk

There are several sources to go to for good data on what row units and attachments work in various conditions.  I was at the 2013 Precision Planting winter conference to see this presentation by Cory Muhlbauer about their research on row units. Their findings are similar to mine, in perfect conditions row units perform similar, but in tough soils like we have in SE Wisconsin there are differences.  Spending time getting your planter setup for your conditions is one of the most important things you can do on your farm.  If you have questions about what planter row unit setup does well in your area work with an agronomist who has knowledge of different setups and how they perform on your soils.

Why We Need Some Sort of UAV Regulation

I started using UAV's to scout fields in late 2012 in the early stages of interest in UAV use.  It's amazing the advances we have had in two years with UAV technology.  I started using a fairly rudimentary Parrot AR 2.0 Drone with a low mega pixel camera that is fixed on the front to now

Down Corn we would have missed by walking field

using a DJI Phantom 2 with a Go Pro on a gimbal mount that shoots amazing HD pictures and video.  We have used pictures to get a different perspective on field patterns and issues we would have never seen from the ground.  For three years we have also been using thermal imagery from a plane to better identify stressed areas of fields overlooked by traditional field scouting.  In several cases this information has proven invaluable to correcting or spotting errors and issues before they become problems.

The advances and increased availability of UAV's has also lead to issues that we cannot avoid.  It's easy to see stories in the news recently of UAV's being used to take pictures and videos near airports, flying aircraft, and in populated areas and sporting events.  Currently, UAV usage falls under hobby aircraft regulations; not to be used for profit, no flying over 400 feet, and not within five miles of airports.  These rules are to keep hobby aircraft like remote controlled plains away from VFR (visual flight reference) aircraft.  VFR rules govern aircraft use for aircraft flying using only visual reference to keep them away from other aircraft and regulating altitude based on sight.  Aircraft flying in the US are regulated to maintain minimum altitudes of 500 feet over land and 1000 feet over populated areas.

It's not hard to find videos on YouTube of UAV's violating hobby aircraft flight rules.  This is why we need some sort of regulation that UAV pilots can live by, and they need to be enforced.  Proposed legislation by the FAA and members of government look to put UAV's into more regular flight rules.  Proposed legislation would require typical pilot licensing, which includes 20-50 hours of flight time in an aircraft typically at a cost of $50-$100/hour with an instructor along with practical knowledge tests.  While this would weed out the bad pilots it would also weed out people like me who want some regulation and licensing, but don't want to pay $5,000 to $6,000 to fly a UAV.

Having a basic knowledge test, and a basic flight class along with carrying a license would be more acceptable.  This would weed out bad pilots along with creating a set of rules that everyone can fallow and will have the knowledge and willingness to as well. While having a licensing requirement may keep away the hobbyist it will also bring in the people sitting on the outside waiting to see what regulation there will be on UAV's before they buy in.  The largest growth and research continues to be in the higher technology and commercial UAV sector so I would doubt we would lose any interest and development in higher end UAV's by regulating the industry. 

Of course UAV's take amazing pictures and video of equipment so if you like harvest videos like most people check out my YouTube of some of my videos from this fall at www.youtube.com/agryguy